US Secretary of State Antony Blinken returns to the Middle East on Monday to renew efforts for an elusive Gaza truce two weeks before the US elections, seeing a new chance in Israel’s killing of Hamas’ leader.
It will be the senior US diplomat’s 11th journey to the Middle East since the war began a year ago, with Blinken warning during his last visit to Israel in August that it could be the “last chance” for a US-led ceasefire deal.
That drive was unsuccessful, and the conflict has intensified and extended since then, with Israel bombing Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and threatening a fresh strike directly on Iran, whose clerics support both Hamas and Hezbollah.
US President Joe Biden, who personally put out the ceasefire plan on May 31 that would also free captives in Gaza, has seen new optimism after Israel assassinated Hamas chairman Yahya Sinwar last week.
Biden, addressing to reporters on a visit to Germany, said he called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to congratulate him and inform him that Blinken will travel to the region.
“I told him that we were really pleased with his actions and, further, that now is the time to move on — move on, move towards a ceasefire,” Biden said Thursday.
The Gaza war was sparked by the unprecedented Hamas attack on Israel last year that resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of official Israeli figures.
Israel’s retaliatory campaign in Gaza has killed 42,603 people, also mostly civilians, according to data from the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory, figures the UN considers reliable.
Last month, Israel expanded its military operations to Lebanon, where at least 1,470 people have been killed since then, according to an AFP tally of Lebanese health ministry figures.
Blinken’s trip comes days after he and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Israel that the United States could withhold some of its billions of dollars in military aid unless more humanitarian assistance is allowed into Gaza, where the UN warns more than 1.8 million people are facing “extreme hunger.”
US election implications
A breakthrough might be a significant boost for US Vice President Kamala Harris, who is competing for the presidency against Donald Trump in a tight fight on November 5.
The battle has been a political albatross for Biden and, to some extent, Harris, his political heir, with Netanyahu regularly turning down US requests to do more to protect civilians.
Trump also spoke with Netanyahu about Sinwar’s death, and the Republican stated that the Israeli leader was correct in defying Biden’s push to reduce military activities.
Trump implied he would offer Netanyahu more leeway, telling reporters that Biden was “trying to hold him back, and he probably should be doing the opposite.”
During his first term, Trump was ardently pro-Israel. He has a delicate relationship with Netanyahu, but Republican voters, unlike Democrats, are strongly pro-Israel and Netanyahu.
Seeing ways forward
Blinken will fly to Israel first, followed by a tour of other Middle Eastern countries through Friday.
The State Department did not specify his other travels, although he has already visited several Arab countries, particularly Qatar and Egypt, who are major intermediates in cease-fire discussions.
Blinken “will discuss the importance of bringing the war in Gaza to an end, securing the release of all hostages, and alleviating the suffering of the Palestinian people,” according to a State Department statement.
It stated that Blinken would also discuss post-war procedures necessary for a peace accord and seek a “diplomatic resolution” in Lebanon, where the US has refrained from advocating an early ceasefire.
Blinken has also attempted to persuade Netanyahu to compromise by dangling the potential of normalization with Saudi Arabia, which would be a historic game changer in Israel’s drive for acceptance, given the kingdom guards Islam’s two holiest sites.
Netanyahu, who leads the most right-wing government in Israeli history, has dubbed Sinwar’s death “the beginning of the end” of the Gaza war, but he faces pressure from his base to continue military operations in Gaza, which has already been reduced to rubble.