According to the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, foreign tourism is predicted to help drive a full recovery by the end of 2024.
According to the research, international tourism was at 88% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023, with an anticipated 1.3 billion international arrivals. The report also gives a thorough summary of the sector’s performance in 2023, monitoring recovery by global area, sub-region, and destination.
In terms of relative recovery, the Middle East led the way, with arrivals 22% higher than in 2019, while Europe reached 94% of 2019 levels, boosted by intra-regional demand and travel from the United States. Africa and the Americas recovered 96% and 90% of their pre-pandemic visitor levels, respectively.
Asia and the Pacific attained 65% of pre-pandemic levels following the reopening of several markets and destinations. However, performance has been varied, with South Asia already recovering 87% of 2019 levels and North-east Asia about 55%.
According to preliminary predictions, international tourism earnings will total US$1.4 trillion in 2023, accounting for almost 93% of the US$1.5 trillion earned by destinations in 2019.
Total tourism export revenues (including passenger transport) are expected to reach $1.6 trillion in 2023, accounting for nearly 95% of the $1.7 trillion recorded in 2019.
Preliminary projections of tourism’s economic impact, as measured by tourist direct gross domestic product (TDGDP), are $3.3 trillion in 2023, or 3% of global GDP. This shows a return to pre-pandemic TDGDP, fueled by strong domestic and international tourism.
Several destinations reported high growth in international tourism receipts over the first 10 to 12 months of 2023, sometimes outpacing growth in arrivals. Several significant source markets reported strong outbound travel demand this time, with many exceeding 2019 levels.
The industry indicators’ performance reflects the sustained recovery. According to the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker, international air capacity and passenger demand have recovered to around 90% of pre-pandemic levels by October 2023 (IATA). Global occupancy rates in accommodation establishments reached 64% in November, slightly higher than 62% in September 2022 (based on STR data).
International tourism is predicted to fully restore pre-pandemic levels by 2024, with initial projections indicating a 2% increase above 2019 levels. The rate of recovery in Asia, as well as the evolution of current economic and geopolitical downside concerns, continue to influence UNWTO’s central projection.
The latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index study shows a favorable view, with 67% of tourism professionals predicting better or considerably better chances for 2024 than in 2023. Some 28% forecast similar performance, while only 6% expect tourism to do worse in 2024 than it did last year.
There is still enormous room for recovery in Asia. The reopening of key source markets and destinations will hasten recovery in the area and worldwide.
Chinese outbound and inbound tourism are predicted to increase in 2024 as visas become more easily obtained and flight capacities improve. China will allow visa-free travel for citizens of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Malaysia until November 30.
Visa and travel facilitation measures will encourage travel to and from the Middle East and Africa, with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries implementing a single tourist visa comparable to the Schengen visa, as well as initiatives to ease intra-African travel in Kenya and Rwanda.
Europe is projected to drive outcomes again in 2024, with Romania and Bulgaria joining the Schengen zone of free movement in March and Paris hosting the Summer Olympics in July and August.
Strong travel from the United States, supported by a strong US currency, will continue to help locations in the Americas and elsewhere. As in 2023, healthy source markets in Europe, the Americas, and the Middle East will continue to drive tourism flows and spending worldwide.
Economic and geopolitical factors continue to impede the long-term revival of international tourism and confidence levels. Persistent inflation, high interest rates, variable oil prices, and trade disruptions may continue to have an impact on transportation and lodging costs in 2024.
Against this context, travelers are anticipated to seek greater value for money and travel closer to home. Sustainable methods and adaptability will also play a larger part in customer preferences.
Staff shortages continue to be a key concern, as tourism businesses struggle to find enough workers to meet demand.
Furthermore, the growth of the Hamas-Israel conflict may impede travel in the Middle East and undermine traveler confidence. Uncertainty stemming from Russia’s aggressiveness against Ukraine, as well as other rising global tensions, continues to undermine trust.