A new poll shows that Black voters in swing states overwhelmingly prefer Democratic presidential contender Kamala Harris.
Howard University’s Public Opinion Poll polled 963 potential Black voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which are critical battleground states. According to the statistics, 82% want to vote for Harris, while 12% back former President Donald Trump. Another 5% are unsure, and 1% want to vote for another candidate.
These findings correlate with 2020 exit surveys from the same battleground states, where 89% of Black voters supported Joe Biden and 9% voted for Trump, matching previous post-election study on the 2020 election.
Although black swing-state voters overwhelmingly support Harris, there are significant disparities across subgroups. “Our poll reflects 100% Black voters, allowing us to explore the diversity of thought within Black communities,” stated Dana Williams, co-director of the Initiative on Public Opinion and Dean of Howard University’s Graduate School.
“It’s crucial for the range of Black voices to be recognized,” according to Williams. “The mainstream media has a responsibility to fairly portray the population. As one of the fastest-growing voter populations, Black voters’ issues must be addressed so that legislative agendas and presidential messaging do not miss a sizable voting majority.”
Harris has tremendous support from both Black women and Black men, with 81% stating they will vote for her. Older voters are more committed to Harris, while younger ones are more divided. Among Black voters 50 and older, 89% support Harris, while 8% support Trump. 75% of those aged 18 to 49 support Harris, while 16% choose Trump.
This age difference is more pronounced in men.Harris has a 50-point edge (72% to 21%) among Black men under 50, and a 78-point advantage (88% to 10%) among men over 50. Harris leads young women by 65 points (78% to 13%), while older women lead by 84 points (89% to 6%).
Furthermore, Black swing-state voters with college degrees prefer Harris to Trump by 73 points, while non-college graduates back her by 68 points. Younger and less educated voters are more likely to back Trump, with 26% of men under 50 without college degrees indicating they will vote for him, compared to 67% who plan to vote for Harris.
Voters supported Harris based on his temperament, principles, and stance on abortion and reproductive health care. In contrast, they cited Trump’s demeanor, abortion policies, and principles as important reasons they are unlikely to vote for him.
When asked about specific concerns, 28% of respondents identified Harris with abortion rights and reproductive health care policy, with economic policies coming in second (26%). Trump is most connected with immigration and border control measures (14%).
According to the poll, 84% of Black voters are concerned that if Trump wins, there will be an upsurge in hate and violence against African Americans. Additionally, 45% expressed anxiety about Harris being the second Black president.
“The media plays a crucial role in shaping candidates’ responses to voter concerns,” Williams told reporters. “If they fail to accurately represent what Black voters are thinking, candidates will be driven by incomplete data.”
The Howard Initiative on Public Opinion conducted a multi-modal poll of 963 probable Black voters between September 4 and 11, using text-to-web online surveys and phone interviews. According to NBC News, the margin of error for probable voters is 3.2 percentage points (+/-).