Ghana’s lengthy output decline and financial hardship in the cocoa business are increasing the likelihood that the West African country would lose its long-held status as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer.
Ghanaian President John Dramani Mahama called an emergency Cabinet meeting this week to address mounting cocoa-related concerns, such as delayed farmer payments, liquidity issues at the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), and significantly dropping harvests.
For decades, Ghana has been the second-largest cocoa exporter in the world, trailing only Côte d’Ivoire, Africa’s top producer.
The crop provides for more than 800,000 farming households and remains a critical source of foreign exchange for the country.
Recent seasons have seen a dramatic reduction in output. In June 2025, the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), the government organization in charge of regulating the country’s cocoa sector and assisting farmers, indicated that Ghana will most certainly miss its production target for the 2024/2025 season.
After decreasing its projection from 650,000 tonnes to 617,500 tonnes in December 2024, the regulator stated that harvests would most likely not surpass 600,000 tons.
“I don’t think that much will change, looking at the time we have to end the crop season,” COCOBOD Managing Director Randy Abbey remarked on June 10, 2025, noting that 590,000 tonnes had already been collected with three months remained.
More recently, during a press conference at Cocoa House in Accra on Friday, February 6, 2026, Abbey announced that, while COCOBOD has sold over 530,000 tonnes of cocoa for the current season, around 50,000 tons remain unsold and with farmers.
He linked the problem to Ghana’s uncompetitive farmgate price, which has made it difficult for purchasers to absorb extra cocoa.
“The situation is where we have beans, but they are not buying; the beans are too expensive,” Abbey said. He stated that steps are being made to remedy delayed payments.
As a result, the expected harvest is significantly lower than Ghana’s historical average of 800,000 tonnes and far below the more than 1 million tonnes recorded during the bumper season of 2020/2021.
COCOBOD cited aging farms, the spread of Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease, illegal gold mining (called locally as galamsey), smuggling, and climate-related weather disruptions as the primary causes of the drop.
Meanwhile, competing manufacturers are steadily expanding, preparing to challenge Ghana’s long-held global supremacy.
Ecuador is leading the surge in South America, with production expected to exceed 650,000 tonnes in the 2025/2026 season, rising to 800,000 tonnes by the end of the decade.
Ecuadorian yields are around 800 kilograms per hectare, compared to less than 500 kilograms per hectare in West Africa, and farmers receive approximately 90% of the global market price, much exceeding the 60-70% obtained by farmers in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire.
Across Southeast Asia, Indonesia, the world’s third-largest cocoa producer, is also growing. The country, which mostly grows Forastero beans with some Trinitario kinds, produced 641,741 tonnes in 2023, dominating the region’s cocoa market.
Exports totaled $47 million that year, and global supply predictions indicate that Indonesian output might increase by around 30% to over 836,000 tons by 2026.
This expansion is fueled by government programs and private initiatives like Cocoa Life, which seek to enhance fermentation consistency and overall farm yields.
Nigeria, which is now ranked fourth in the world, has also expressed a desire to enhance output.
The government plans to increase output from 340,000 to 500,000 tons, accounting for around 6.5% of world supplies.
While year-round irrigation and governmental assistance could increase output, structural difficulties persist. Nonetheless, Nigeria could emerge as a legitimate competitor to threaten Ghana’s status as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer.