When German Chancellor Olaf Scholz last visited Washington a year ago, Russian forces had yet to cross the border into Ukraine, and the White House’s apocalyptic warnings of an impending invasion were met with suspicion.
Scholz travels to Washington on Friday for talks with President Joe Biden following a momentous year that forced Europe to reconsider its own security and Germany to make its most substantial adjustment in military and energy strategy in decades.
Scholz, who entered office two months before Russia’s invasion, has become a crisis leader, presiding over Europe’s strongest economy and most powerful democracy during the continent’s worst violence since World War II.
And it has put him and Biden into one of the world’s most crucial relationships, one that has been sustained by common opposition to Russia’s incursion but has been strained at times over how to respond.
According to White House sources, Biden has formed a strong relationship with Scholz, who will succeed longtime chancellor Angela Merkel at the end of 2021. They spoke by phone three times in January alone, and they are expected to speak extensively one-on-one in the Oval Office during Friday’s White House session.
According to senior administration officials, the overwhelming topic of discussion will be Ukraine, including discussions the two men have recently had with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is pressuring the West for more powerful weapons as he prepares for a spring counteroffensive against Russia.
“The overarching purpose of this meeting was a chance for the two leaders to be able to coordinate specifically on Ukraine,” a senior administration official said ahead of the visit.
They may also discuss recent intelligence suggesting China is considering sending lethal aid to Russia, which US officials believe would prolong the fight, though China will not be a “driving emphasis” of the meeting.
According to National Security Council strategic communications coordinator John Kirby, the White House also plans to announce another round of military support for Ukraine on Friday. The new cargo would “primarily” include ammo for Ukrainian weapons systems that they already have.
Biden feels that by inviting Scholz back to the White House, he may bolster a leader who has had a difficult first year in office.
A year ago, it would have been unthinkable to envision Germany arming Ukraine with Howitzers, Stinger missile launchers, and Leopard tanks to repel Russian invaders. In the decades following Nazi brutality in World War Two, Berlin’s foreign policy was essentially pacifist.
Yet, Germany is once again investing in its military and delivering increasingly powerful weaponry, albeit not at the rate Zelensky would prefer. Some detractors argue that Scholz has failed to play an uniting role in Europe akin to Merkel, choosing to act alone rather than in collaboration with European leaders like as France’s Emmanuel Macron. In addition, some American officials believe Germany is excessively cautious in comparison to other Western allies.
Yet, the so-called “Zeitenwende,” or turning point, advocated by Scholz in the days following Russia’s incursion has been welcomed by the White House and supported by many of the initiatives he’s taken in the months since.
Germany’s decision to supply Ukraine with Leopard tanks in January is the latest example of the country overcoming its post-war aversion to foreign military action. The decision came only after diplomatic haggling with the US, which agreed to give Ukraine with its own Abrams tanks despite Pentagon fears that they would be less effective on the battlefield.
There is still some disagreement regarding how the contract came to be. Following last weekend’s statement by Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan that “the Germans told the president that they would not be prepared to send those Leopards into the fight… until the president also agreed to send Abrams,” the German government insisted that the decision to send tanks was made jointly and without any demands from Berlin.
In any case, the outcome has been seen positively by Biden’s staff, who were wary of Scholz a year ago when he sounded hesitant to impose penalties on Russia if it invaded Ukraine or canceled the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Scholz took both of these actions as soon as the invasion began, despite the risk of Germany losing one of its primary energy suppliers.
Scholz, for his part, might use Friday’s meeting with Biden to highlight his current negotiations with other European leaders about offering security assurances for Ukraine as a way to start the process of negotiating an end to the war.
Fears are mounting among American and European officials that the grinding struggle will devolve into a violent stalemate, with each side achieving only minor victories while refusing to negotiate.
Scholz told the German parliament on Thursday, before leaving for Washington, that Germany and its Western allies were in negotiations with Kyiv about future security guarantees in preparation for a long-term peace in Ukraine.
“Such security assurances, however, are contingent on Ukraine effectively defending itself in this war,” Scholz said, underlining that Germany would continue to supply weaponry to Ukraine.
Scholz went on to remark that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin was not currently willing to engage in peace talks to end the conflict in Ukraine.
“Is Putin even ready … to negotiate a just peace? Nothing suggests it at the moment,” Scholz said.