In an analysis note titled ” Ten countries in which stability is not being taken for granted “, one of these think tanks, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), has defined the next ten countries as major challenges for the White House in the next four years. The Think Tank sees these countries as unstable, so we know what that means to Washington. Clearly, these are the countries in which the future chaos will take place.
In reality, these countries are not more volatile than another. They did not have more demonstrations of popular discontent than France, Germany or the United States. Even rather less than most for some of them. Similarly, apart from Turkey, the arrests during demonstrations are of the same order, and even less if we take into account the fact that the violence on the part of the protesters in these countries is often remote-controlled. to cause an open conflict with the authorities.
There is, however, a big difference between violent protesters. If they are sentenced to Paris, Berlin or Phoenix, they are thugs, but become political prisoners if they are condemned in any of the countries to destabilize.
Here are the ten countries of concern to AEI:
1. The Maldives . When we talk about the Maldives, the only images that come to us are images of holidays, paradisiacal islands. Only, the Maldives have two peculiarities. On the one hand the archipelago is located between the southern tip of India and the American base Diego Garcia, and on the other hand it is an Islamic republic, therefore an ideal place to implant an embryo of Islamic State. For now these supposed terrorists do not do anything, but the Think Tank predicts they will make kidnappings of tourists. As he says, we can be sure that these kidnappings will take place.
It is slavery that will be the spark. Although legally slavery has been abolished in this country, the state seems powerless to enforce the laws, partly because of mentalities, but also for lack of economic means to accompany these laws. If the United Nations had really wanted it, slavery would have disappeared long ago in Mauritania. The three bordering countries to the north, Morocco, Algeria and Mali, inhabited by the same slave tribes, never had to suffer these accusations.
Considered as a refuge of terrorism (artificially implanted), countries practicing slavery (it is a socio-economic and societal acute problem, and not from the point of view of the law), and finally, adds the AEI, country of smugglers ( they do not say the nature of contraband). According to the Think Tank, Mauritania became Afghanistan pre-11.09 . It may heat up.
2. Mauritania . Another Islamic Republic, as by chance. Having come to power thanks to a coup d’etat, the current president had to, in order to build himself a certain legitimacy, lend himself to elections validating his coup d’etat by preserving the forms. In exchange, no doubt, for this recognition, he pledged to lead the fight against terrorism, a terrorism that did not exist then in Mauritania. The first “terrorist” act will occur soon after. Indeed, when one commits to fight against terrorism, it is not only the means of struggle that are provided, but also the terrorists. Now the Islamic State is well established, straddling Mauritania, Mali and Algeria. The American Think Tank already tells us where the chaos will come from.
3. Algeria . It’s one of the biggest pieces. One of the most coveted too. The AEI says so himself: one of the richest. What do we blame for Algeria? As for the first two, terrorism. The presence of AQIM in the south of the country is the basic pretext. In addition to this classic boat pretext, they closely monitor the death of Abdelaziz Bouteflika and apparently do not intend to let the estate be done without them. According to them, “Algeria’s long-time strongman will probably leave before the end of the next four years”.
They predict that the successor will have to face the radical Islamists who might seek revenge for being removed from power for so long. Again, if they predict that there will be a clash, there will be. We saw that after the war in Libya there was a redeployment of Al Qaeda in northern Mali and Mauritania and in southern Algeria.
For now, terrorists do not venture too much inside the country, probably waiting for the whistle of the beginning of hostilities. They will not lack weapons because they have drawn all they needed in the Libyan arsenal. The AEI already announces a disaster for Europe (implied, it will be necessary that the United States intervenes to save Europe once again).
4. Ethiopia . This time, it is not an Islamic State or Al Qaida. The AEI presents us with Ethiopia as the most fragile country in the world governed by autocratic and repressive power. On October 9, we published an article we had called Alert! New destabilization underway in Ethiopia.
The American Think Tank confirms what we said. This country is one of the countries to destabilize. As always, when they can not invoke terrorist reasons, ethnic and religious divisions come to the rescue. There is not a single region in the world outside of Europe where ethnicities or religions have not been used to push people against each other.
In Ethiopia, a multiethnic country in which Islam has always rubbed shoulders with Christianity, they were no exception. They have already calculated that the country has 30% of Muslims whose population growth is faster than that of Christians, and that this will eventually cause inter-religious conflicts. The troubles have already begun, and the bottom of the problem, we know: China is there, and well established.
5. Nigeria . For this country, the most populous in Africa, there is nothing new. It will only be a continuation of a process of destabilization that began long ago. And there, all the usual tools are activated; it’s the total. Terrorists (Boko Haram), pirates transferred from Somalia to the Gulf of Guinea, inter-ethnic problems (there are 250 ethnic groups), armed rebels against central power, and of course, inter-religious friction.
In 2014 we attended the global launch of Boko Haram, with the help of Michelle Obama, with the dramatic kidnapping of hundreds of schoolgirls. In August 2015 we published an article with a photo showing the abducted girls holding up a banner of the group with the profession of faith written in Arabic, but with Hebrew calligraphy, which gives us clues about the origins of these terrorist groups. To complete the picture, the AEI mentions in its study one of Nigeria’s major problems, corruption.
According to the Think Tank, the country has lost $ 400 billion due to malpractices and corruption since 1960, more than the total international aid to Africa during the same period. What the US company does not say is that for a dollar going down to the south, there are at least 10 going into the pockets of northern partners. But for the United States, such a country laden with so many flaws can only call for a quick rescue of its fragile democracy, otherwise it would be the whole of Africa that would burn up.
6. Turkey . Turkey also has a pedigree loaded. The problem is that with this NATO member country, it is a delicate thing. How to get rid of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan without dismembering the country? The AEI is back on the failed coup d’etat of July followed by its massive purge and state of emergency still in progress. Many things have already been tried against Erdogan, but the fact that we want to avoid chaos in Turkey seems to have brought him luck. The Turkish president, however, is not immune to other attempts to eliminate. The AEI suggests that there may be more violence on the horizon . Be that as it may, the AEI foresees chaos after Erdogan’s death or death, a chaos that must be prevented at all costs.
7. Russia . For Russia, the problem of the AEI is both simple and complicated. It is simple because it can be summed up in one name: Putin. Once Putin is gone, everything is settled. They could then pick up where they left off before he arrived. But now, Putin is there and does not seem willing to give them the pleasure of disappearing.
Then there are the complex solutions and they rely on the same classic recipes: terrorism and religion. They count on the faster increase of the Russian Muslim population compared to the Christian population to stir up inter-religious conflicts. Chechnya and Dagestan remain for them two grounds for radicalism to cultivate and maintain. Incidentally, they also plan to play with ethnic problems with the Tatars0 map.
The AEI then asks a question: since Muslims make up a growing proportion of the young conscript population, will Russia be able to count on its own army in a sectarian conflict?
8. Saudi Arabia . Saudi Arabia could become a very serious problem for the United States, mainly because of their own fault. On the one hand the United States has strengthened Iran against Saudi Arabia by lifting the embargo, with, in parallel, a drop in the price of oil pushing the Saudi economy on the edge of the precipice.
On the other hand, the war in Yemen is proving to be a quagmire for the kingdom and, to top it off, the Saudi king may be suffering from Alzheimer’s disease, according to the AEI. The question for the United States is whether Saudi Arabia will be able to play its role in stabilizing the Middle East and the world economy under the agreements that bind them. Otherwise, solutions are needed.
9. Jordan . Jordan is more than an ally of the United States, it is an Israel, at least as far as its government and its monarchy are concerned. The problem is that Jordanians are Arabs who see what is happening around them.
According to the AEI, despite denials from the Jordanian government, Jordan is in crisis today . Successive waves of refugees have put enormous pressure on the Jordanian economy. King Abdullah and Queen Rania are not popular in their country, even if they are adulated outside. Once again, to take matters into their own hands, terrorism comes to the aid of the Americans.
The great fear is that after being beaten in Iraq and Syria, Daesh fighters flock to Jordan. This gives us indications on the future destination of some of the Daechians after their future debacle.
10. China . The big piece for the end. The AEI sketches a few vague lines to give itself some reasons for hope, but the only solution they advocate is … to wait. Wait until China collapses on its own, like the Soviet Union. For that, they rely on income inequality between cities and the countryside, which they believe will move the population, and the future consequences of the one-child policy. With this type of solution to bring it down, China has time to see coming.