The organisation of petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is looking at Dangote refinery owned by Africa’s richest man Aliko Dangote to drive refinery capacity expansion in Africa, by 2020.
The refinery which OPEC considers as the first privately owned and operated refinery in Nigeria, is expected to refine as much as 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day.
According to the 10th edition of its World Oil Outlook (WOO), OPEC said the refinery will add to the production in state-run refineries in the country.
Of several possible refining projects, one that may materialize in the medium-term is the grassroots 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery.
“Of several possible refining projects, one that may materialize in the medium-term is the grassroots 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery and an associated greenfield fertilizer plant in Lagos. If built, this refinery would be Nigeria’s first privately owned and operated refinery,” OPEC said.
According to the oil organisation, the projected investments in Africa through to 2021 are seen as around $20 billion. And a large share of this is attributed to two projects, Dangote in Nigeria and the Sanangol’s Lobito project in Angola.
OPEC said its “outlook is especially sensitive to the progress of the large Dangote project”.
“Whether or not the large Dangote project progresses in a timely manner remains a major consideration, as it will affect how much new capacity is in fact brought onstream in the medium-term.”
OPEC said refining capacity is on the increase in developing countries, as against the developed world, with the Asia-Pacific taking the lead.
“Capacity rationalization remains a long-term requirement, with some 2.5 mb/d of net refinery closures expected by 2040, an estimated 4 mb/d by 2025, and a further 5 mb/d are indicated as needed by 2040 if refining regions are to maintain utilization rates of at least 80%”.
OPEC insists that despite the drive against fossil fuels “oil and gas are expected to supply around 53% of the global energy demand by 2040,”.