Three days ago, Nigeria’s budget-monitoring tech organization, BudgIT, released a detailed document on the states of Nigeria; their economic situations, debt burdens, budget-funding capabilities, internally generated revenue ratings and financial sustainability.
This move is part of a greater plan to engender transparency in our budgets, as well as demand better accountability from our various state governors across the federation.
The document had some revealing details, some shocking details, as well as some downright damning ones. I guess reality is truly different from state-sponsored propaganda and social media rhetoric.
Ability Of States To Meet Recurrent Expenditure
In this category, the states are ranked by the figures realized after subtracting the total monthly salaries paid by the states from their monthly income. The states in red are states whose monthly incomes are unable to meet up with the monthly wage bill. In other words, states that are unable to pay their salaries without having to borrow. States in green, on the other hand, are states whose monthly incomes are enough to adequately pay salaries and still have some leftovers for other engagements.
This is the table:
From the table above it can be deduced that Lagos, Rivers, Delta, Katsina and Enugu are the top 5 states with the highest leftover cash even after meeting monthly obligations; while Osun, Plateau, Ogun, Nasarawa and Oyo are the bottom 5 states as well as the states with the greatest inability to meet monthly payments without having to borrow.
Perhaps interesting to note, is the fact that Osun state’s monthly shortfall is larger than the monthly shortfalls of Ekiti, Bauchi, Abia, Kaduna, Zamfara, Imo and Gombe, combined.
On a region-by-region basis, it can also be deduced that:
1. In the South-South, all other states are green except Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom.
2. In the South-East, Enugu, Ebonyi and Anambra are able to meet recurrent obligations, but Imo and Abia are unable to.
3. In the South-West, Lagos is the only state currently meeting its recurrent obligations while all other sister states, Ekiti, Ondo, Oyo, Ogunand Osun, are unable to.
4. Taraba and Yobe are the only North-Eastern states without monthly shortfalls
5. Niger, Benue and Kogi are the only North-Central states currently without shortfalls.
6. Zamfara and Kaduna are the only North-West states with shortfalls.
Internally Generated Revenue
This was published a few weeks ago, but republished three days ago…
Ranking Of States By Debt
State Sustainability Index
BudgIT published the final info known as “State Sustainability Index”. This is the rating of the states by their financial sustainability. It factors in the state’s IGR, as well as its total debt stocks, AND recurrent expenditure before arriving at its final figures.
This is the standard formula used in calculating state sustainability index:
Using the formula above with IGR’s and debt stocks previously posted, below is the ranking of the states by their sustainability indices:
From the table above, it can be deduced that Rivers State, with its high IGR and relatively low debt, is Nigeria’s most sustainable state, with Lagos, Enugu, Delta and Katsina all trailing in that order to make up Nigeria’s top 5 most sustainable states.
Counting from the bottom, on the other hand, Plateau, Osun, Nasarawa, Borno and Ekiti are ranked as Nigeria’s least sustainable states, with their low IGRs and inexplicably high debts.
On a personal region-by-region ranking (gotten by adding all the indices for every state in each region and dividing by the number of states in said region), the South-South is by far Nigeria’s most sustainable region with a cumulative average sustainability index of 8.27
Coming a very distant second is the South-East with an index of 6.43
In third place is the North-West with an index of approximately 5.45
Number 4 is the South-West with 5.43
Coming fifth place with an index of 4.39, is the North-Central
And scraping the bottom of the barrel at last place, is the insurgency-torn North-East with an index of 3.97
Download the PDF here: http://www.yourbudgit.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/THE-FATE-OF-STATES-Final.pdf