En Marche’s candidate! The president of the Front National is ahead of candidate LR and Jean-Luc Mélenchon dropped out.

End of the suspense. At the end of a panting presidential campaign opposing for the first time four candidates likely to qualify for the second round,  Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen have preceded their challengers  Jean-Luc Mélenchon  and  François Fillon . A thunderclap of history since, for the first time under the Fifth Republic, neither the right republican heiress of Gaullism nor the Socialist Party appear in the second round.

According to the first estimates by the Ipsos institute for France Télévisions and Ifop for Cnews / Paris-Match and Sud Radio, to take cautiously in view of the limited deadlines, the candidate of En Marche! Is clearly at the top of the vote this Sunday, April 23rd at around 23.8% of the vote. An exploit for the former Minister of the Economy who presents himself for the first time before universal suffrage and without the support of one of the four main parties represented in Parliament. Unless surprised, this one should benefit in the second round of a wave of support emanating from the left and center-right.

On a stable basis compared to 2012, Marine Le Pen improved his score by almost 4 points (22%) and managed, 15 years after his father Jean-Marie, to rise to the second round. If she were to split the FN record in the number of votes cast in a presidential poll, this result is only a half-triumph for the far right candidate, which was given at the top of the first round by opinion polls . An estimate, that of Kantar Sofres for TF1, however give the candidate En Marche! And the President of the FN tied at 23%.

Fillon and the right in crisis, Mélenchon disappointed but …

But his disappointment is nothing compared to that of François Fillon. The winner of the LR primary, which was dryly eliminated in the first round with a score of around 19-20% of the votes, was still the favorite of this election five months ago. Until the scandal of the alleged fictitious jobs of his wife and children precipitated him below the 20% mark. According to the institutes, it is not certain that François Fillon would finish in front of Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

His defeat, combined with the victory of the young former business banker, could precipitate a serious crisis within the Republican party, where many did not digest the retention of the former prime minister despite his legal setbacks. This context should not subside with the thorny question of a call to vote Macron in the second round. If the Republican right has always hinted that it would call to block the Front National, the decision remains delicate in a party deeply divided on the European question.

For Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the result of this Sunday (around 18-19% of votes) is also cruel. Author of a dynamic and innovative campaign, the leader of La France Insoumise improves by 7 points his score of 2012 but fails to qualify as he could hope for in the second round. This more than honorable score, coupled with the collapse of a socialist party torn between Macron and himself, can nevertheless allow him to lay the groundwork for the vast citizen movement he has already constituted. However, suspense in terms of its voting instructions should not be lifted as of Sunday night. A consultation of the sympathizers of unbridled France could be launched to determine what their vote will be on May 7.

The Socialist Party of Hamon at the bottom of the hole

For Benoît Hamon , the much-anticipated surprise did not take place. Victim of the divisions of his party and of the useful vote, for once favorable to Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the deputy of Yvelines realizes the worst score (at around 6.5%) ever obtained by a candidate of the Socialist Party to the ” presidential election. Benoît Hamon was forced to acknowledge his defeat while preparing for the sequel, including in the ultramarine strongholds of the PS where Francois Hollande had surpassed the 50% in the first round.

For no doubt that his great rival Manuel Valls will seek to take advantage of this dethrowed to position himself in the hypothetical majority that will seek to constitute Emmanuel Macron if he prevails.

Emmanuel Macron will have between 23% and 24%, between 21.6% and 23%, ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon between 19.5% and 20%, François Fillon between 19% and 20.3% , Benoît Hamon between 6.1% and 7%, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan between 4.6% and 5%. No other candidate reaches the 5% mark.

– Huffingtonpost.com