They are both motivators and barometers of upcoming events. For these ideas boxes, in which the main lines of US foreign policy are elaborated, Libya, Syria, Yemen, the South China Sea and Ukraine are already in the past. Apart from some adjustments to be made here or there, they have moved on to something else. They are already drawing up plans for the future US president’s policy.
In an analytical note entitled ” Ten countries Whose stability can not be taken for Granted “, one of the think tanks, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), defined the next ten countries that represent major challenges for The White House in the next four years. The Think Tank considers these countries to be unstable, so we know what it means to Washington. Clearly, these are the countries in which the future chaos will unfold.
In reality, these countries are no more unstable than another. They have not had more manifestations of popular discontent than France, Germany or the United States. Even rather less than more for some of them. Similarly, with the exception of Turkey, arrests at demonstrations are of the same order, and even less so if one takes into account the fact that the violence on the part of the demonstrators in these countries is often remotely guided To cause open conflict with the authorities.
There is, however, a big difference between violent demonstrators. If they are condemned in Paris, Berlin or Phoenix, they are thugs, but become political prisoners if they are condemned in any country to destabilize.
The ten countries of concern to the AEI are:
1. The Maldives . When we talk about the Maldives, the only images that come to us are images of holidays, paradisiacal islands. Only, the Maldives have two peculiarities. On the one hand the archipelago is located between the southern tip of India and the American base Diego Garcia, and on the other hand it is an Islamic republic, therefore an ideal place to implant an embryo of Islamic State. For now, these supposed terrorists are not doing anything, but the Think Tank is planning to kidnap tourists. As he says, we can be sure that these abductions will take place.
2. Mauritania . Another Islamic Republic, as if by chance. Having come to power thanks to a coup d’état, the current president had to, in order to build a certain legitimacy, lend itself to elections validating its coup d’état while preserving the forms. In exchange for this recognition, he promised to fight terrorism, a terrorism that did not exist then in Mauritania. The first “terrorist” act will occur soon after. Indeed, when we commit ourselves to fighting terrorism, it is not only the means of struggle that are provided, but also the terrorists. Now the Islamic State is well established, straddling Mauritania, Mali and Algeria. The American Think Tank already tells us where the chaos will come from.
It is slavery that will be the spark. Although slavery was legally abolished in that country, the state appears to be powerless to enforce the laws, partly because of mentalities, but also because of the lack of economic means to accompany these laws. If the UN had really wanted it, it would have been long since slavery disappeared in Mauritania. The three neighboring countries to the north, Morocco, Algeria and Mali, inhabited by the same slave tribes, have never had to face these accusations.
Considered as a refuge for terrorism (artificially implanted), a country practicing slavery (it is an acute socioeconomic and societal problem, not a legal one), and finally, adds the AEI, country of smugglers They do not say the nature of the smuggling). According to the Think Tank, Mauritania became Afghanistan pre-11.09 . It may heat up
3. Algeria . This is one of the biggest pieces. One of the most coveted as well. The AEI says it itself: one of the richest. What is the criticism of Algeria? As for the first two, terrorism. The presence of the AQIM in the south of the country is the basic pretext. In addition to this classic boat pretext, they closely monitor the death of Abdelaziz Bouteflika and apparently do not intend to let the succession be done without them. According to them, “the long-time strong man of Algeria, will probably leave before the end of the next four years”.
They predict that the successor will have to face the radical Islamists who might seek revenge for having been dismissed from power for so long. Again, if they predict that there will be a confrontation, there will be. We have seen that after the war in Libya there was a redeployment of Al Qaeda in northern Mali and Mauritania and in southern Algeria.
For now, terrorists do not venture too far inside the country, probably waiting for the whistle of the outbreak of hostilities. They will not lack weapons since they drew all they needed in the Libyan arsenal. The AEI is already announcing a catastrophe for Europe (implying that the United States must intervene to save Europe again).
4. Ethiopia . This time, it is not an Islamic state or an Al Qaeda. The AEI presents Ethiopia as the most fragile country in the world ruled by an autocratic and repressive power. On 9 October, we published an article entitled Alert! New destabilization is underway in Ethiopia.
The American Think Tank confirms what we said. This country is among the countries to be destabilized. As always, when they can not invoke terrorist reasons, ethnic and religious divisions come to the rescue. There is not a single region in the world outside Europe where ethnicities or religions have not been used to push populations against each other.
In Ethiopia, a multiethnic country in which Islam has always rubbed shoulders with Christianity, they were no exception. They have already calculated that the country comprises 30% of Muslims whose population growth is faster than that of Christians, and that this will eventually provoke inter-religious conflicts. The troubles have already begun, and the bottom of the problem is known: China is there, and well established.
5. Nigeria . For this country, the most populous of Africa, there is nothing new. It will only be the continuation of a process of destabilization that has begun for a long time. And there, all the usual tools are activated; This is the total. Terrorists (Boko Haram), pirates transferred from Somalia to the Gulf of Guinea, inter-ethnic problems (there are 250 ethnic groups), armed rebels against the central power, and of course, inter-religious frictions.
In 2014 we witnessed the global launch of Boko Haram, with the help of Michelle Obama, with the spectacular kidnapping of hundreds of schoolgirls. In August 2015 we published an article with a photo showing the abducted girls holding a banner of the group with the profession of faith written in Arabic but with Hebrew calligraphy, which gives us clues about the origins of these terrorist groups. To complete the picture, the AEI mentions in its study one of Nigeria’s major problems, corruption.
According to the Think Tank, the country would have lost $ 400 billion due to embezzlement and corruption since 1960, more than total international aid to Africa during the same period. What the American company does not say is that for every dollar that goes down south, there are at least 10 that go into the pockets of the partners in the north. But for the United States, such a country with so many defects can only call for a rapid rescue of its fragile democracy, otherwise Africa as a whole will be consumed.
6. Turkey . Turkey also has a pedigree loaded. The problem is that this is a delicate matter with this NATO member. How to get rid of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan without dismembering the country? The AEI is back on the abortive July coup followed by its massive purge and the state of emergency still in progress. Many things have already been tried against Erdogan, but the fact that we want to avoid the chaos in Turkey seems to have brought him luck. However, the Turkish president is not immune to further elimination attempts. The AEI suggests that there may be more violence on the horizon . Anyway the AEI foresees a chaos after the dead or lively departure of Erdogan, a chaos that should be prevented at all costs.
7. Russia . For Russia, the AEI problem is both simple and complicated. It is simple because it can be summarized in a name: Putin. Once Putin disappeared, everything is settled. They could then pick up where they left off before they arrived. But here, Putin is there and does not seem willing to give them the pleasure of disappearing.
There remain complex solutions and they rely on the same classic recipes: terrorism and religion. They are counting on the more rapid increase of the Russian Muslim population compared to the Christian population to stir up inter-religious conflicts. Chechnya and Daghestan remain for them two foundations for radicalism to cultivate and maintain. Incidentally, they also intend to play with ethnic problems with the map of the Tatars.
The AEI then poses a question: given that Muslims represent an increasing proportion of the conscripted youth population, will Russia be able to count on its own army in a sectarian conflict?
8. Saudi Arabia . Saudi Arabia could become a very serious problem for the United States, mainly through their own fault. On the one hand, the United States strengthened Iran against Saudi Arabia by lifting the embargo, while at the same time lowering the price of oil pushing the Saudi economy to the edge of the precipice.
On the other hand, the war in Yemen turns out to be a quagmire for the kingdom and, to top it off, the Saudi king is possibly suffering from Alzheimer’s disease, according to the AEI. The question for the United States is whether Saudi Arabia will be able to fulfill its role in stabilizing the Middle East and the world economy under the agreements that bind them.Otherwise, solutions are needed.
9. Jordan . Jordan is more than an ally of the United States, it is an Israel bis, at least as far as its government and its monarchy are concerned. The problem is that the Jordanians are Arabs who see what is going on around them.
According to the AEI, despite the denials of the Jordanian government, Jordan is in crisis today . The successive waves of refugees have put enormous pressure on the Jordanian economy. King Abdallah and Queen Rania are not popular in their country, even if they are adulated outside. Again, to take matters into their own hands, terrorism comes to the rescue of the Americans.
The big fear is that after being beaten in Iraq and Syria, Daesh fighters flock to Jordan. This gives us indications about the future destination of some of the Daechians after their future debacle.
10. China . The big chunk for the end. The AEI sketches some vague features to give some reasons for hope, but the only solution they advocate is … to wait. Wait for China to collapse on its own, like the Soviet Union. To do so, they rely on income inequality between cities and the countryside, which they believe will move the population, and the future consequences of the one-child policy. With this type of solutions to shoot down, China has time to see coming.